In rough times, some reasons for optimism: lessons from Latin America on REDD+

The recent US presidential elections have stunned the world, particularly those currently participating in the climate change negotiations in Marrakesh (COP 22). Though the newly elected US president should be received with an open mind, his statements on the environment have already sent shivers across the climate change community. The arrival of the Trump presidency also provides an opportunity to take stock of the last decade of efforts to decrease emissions, including those from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Have the time and money been well invested? Are there reasons for optimism? This article provides a summary of some important emerging lessons to date on REDD+ from the Latin American region. REDD+ has already proven to be successful, but under certain conditions A number of lessons on REDD+ can be learnt from the agreement between Norway and Brazil. First, REDD+ can achieve measurable results. While the deforestation trend in the Latin American country picked up a bit recently, the decrease from historical deforestation trends is clear. Second, a minimum level of readiness is required. Brazil had the in-house capacities on policy design, policy implementation, monitoring, and enforcement. If these capacities are not there, external support is needed. The UN-REDD programme provides this type of support. Third, high-level political backing is key. The president and the minister of environment of Brazil threw their full political support behind REDD+. Fourth, the payments must be worth the effort. Norway shelled out not an insignificant amount (1 billion USD) in results-based payments. The results are there for all to see. A payment of 5 USD/TnCO2e is below an optimal price; yet, much can still be accomplished REDD+ payments are at the moment set at 5 USD /TnCO2e. This level of payments dominates the negotiations at the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), the agreements between Norway and countries like Colombia and Peru, and the carbon tax in Chile and Mexico. The figure of 5 USD/TnCO2e is not grounded on forecasts about the price of carbon or estimates of the social cost of emissions. Many practitioners, myself included, hope the price will be revised upwards but it is safe to assume that it will stick at that level in the short and medium run. How effective these payments can be for transforming landscapes? Based on a series of benefits/costs analyses in Argentina, Paraguay, Ecuador and Panama, the short answer is that REDD+ payments seem capable of promoting transformational change and result in avoided emissions. A payment of 5 USD/TnCO2e may not be optimal but it does provide sufficient incentives to start addressing some of the most important drivers of deforestation. In Argentina, the expansion of cattle ranching is taking place at the expense of the Chaco ecosystem, the second largest forest type in South America. A payment of 5 USD/TnCO2e is competitive with the returns of the cattle ranching sector and leave a buffer to support implementation costs. A similar result can be observed in Paraguay, a country in which cattle ranching cleans up 300,000 ha […]

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