America, The Disgraced Super-power

At this moment of unprecedented upheaval, it is striking that some things never change. We are being subjected to a tidal wave of interpretation and speculation as to what a Trump administration means for American foreign relations in regard to inter alia Russia, Syria, the Iran nuclear deal, the “pivot to Asia,” trans-Atlantic ties and, of course, Mexico. It is entirely natural for a distraught political elite to wonder what comes next from this unstable, quixotic showman who soon will be sitting in the White House. It is neither natural nor appropriate, though, to make believe that Washington is experiencing a transition of power to be approached in standard terms. The unpalatable truth is that we have no idea as to what Trump will do or not do. Trump’s campaign remarks are the sole evidence available for indications of the direction that he will take. That is an extremely flimsy basis for forecasting actions abroad. For two reasons. First, candidates’ calculated sound bites while running almost never are a reliable guide to their actions or thinking ― in its rudimentary form or as it takes shape under the influence of real life conditions and the counsel of advisers. Consider Barack Obama, a far more thoughtful, sober and intelligent man. Remember the objective of eliminating nuclear weapons (rather than committing $1 trillion to the development of a more “usable” arsenal). Remember closing Guantanamo and reining in electronic surveillance of Americans. Remember ending the engagement of American troops in the GWOT (we now are fighting in 38 places by one means or another). Second, Trump’s comments about foreign policy were mere points of demagoguery meant, as with everything else he said, to appeal to the primitive instincts of an aroused audience. There is not the slightest sign that he had thought seriously about any of it. Donald Trump finds serious thinking itself an alien mental activity. Moreover, he has few experienced advisors in his entourage. Apart from some conversations with General Michael Flynn, the off-beat former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Chairman of his national security advisory panel, James Woolsey, former Director of the CIA, his “advisers” have been a collection of odd-balls, non-entities and dogmatists. Woolsey himself is an uber-hawk whose views on all matters of consequence align with those of the neo-cons, the Cheney-like hard nationalists and Hillary Clinton ― and are diametrically opposite to Trump’s much publicized iconoclastic remarks. So what we will be seeing between now and the Inauguration, and afterwards, is a mad scramble by a horde of aspirants for the power and access to occupy Donald Trump’s mind ― if they can find it. This is the brutal reality. Since it provides little of substance for the habitual commentators, they are inclined to play a game of make-believe ― conjuring supposedly meaningful evidence from what is a kaleidoscope of emotional outbursts and a fantasia of day dreams. There is good reason to believe that within six months of Trump’s taking office, when his […]

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