Turkey has Proved it no Longer is a U.S. Friend

Predicting the course of the coming Trump presidency could be an Olympic sport. The president-elect evidences strong opinions but little knowledge of many issues. Moreover, he usually was short on specifics: for instance, what would it mean to “bomb the shit” out of ISIS? Thus, personnel are likely to be policy in many cases. While candidate Donald Trump hasn’t said much about what he thinks of Turkey—other than generally backing foreign strongmen and dismissing human rights concerns—his designated National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn, has. And what the latter opined is not good, at least for approaching a nominal ally which is steadily moving toward authoritarianism and actively impeding U.S. policy in Iraq and Syria. Flynn, a retired general who headed the Defense Intelligence Agency, appears to share the military’s traditional institutional deference toward Ankara. Turkey’s critics long pointed to the army’s outsize, undemocratic role; government’s routine violations of human rights; military’s invasion and continued occupation of a large portion of the Republic of Cyprus; and regime’s brutal campaign against Kurdish separatists. However, the Pentagon always came to Ankara’s defense: the country, with its military bases, was seen as a bulwark against Soviet expansion and model of moderate Islamic democracy. But the end of the Cold War eliminated Ankara’s claim to anchor Europe’s security. In fact, Turkey has become a liability for NATO. Last fall President Recep Tayyip Erdogan risked dragging the entire continent into a full-scale war by shooting down a Russian aircraft for a 17-second violation of Turkish airspace. Then Erdogan made a dramatic volte face, staging a rapprochement with Moscow. Turkey’s evident dissatisfaction with U.S. and European criticism raised questions whether his government could be trusted in a confrontation between NATO and Russia. Moreover, Turkey lost its democratic status when Erdogan dropped his liberal feint which had won support from secular Turks and foreign observers alike. His government arrested critics, tried opponents in bizarre conspiracy trials, jailed scores of journalists, seized private media enterprises, threatened business critics, and advanced Islamist values. The country became a scary place even before the failed July coup. Since then the regime has used the attempted putsch as an excuse to arrest opposition legislators and punish any and all opponents, including those who had opposed the military plot. More than 100,000 people have been imprisoned, lost their jobs, or been otherwise penalized. Erdogan now is planning to revive his stalled push for an authoritarian, Putin-like presidency. So much for the traditional arguments for embracing Ankara. The rise of the Islamic State offers new reasons to doubt the bilateral relationship. Turkey increasingly thwarts U.S. policy in the Middle East. Ankara rejected an American request to launch a second front from the north against Iraq in 2003. Only after extended negotiations did Turkey agree to American use of Incirlik air base against the Islamic State. Once an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, President Erdogan flipped to seek the former’s ouster; unwilling to commit Turkish troops and wealth, he insisted that Washington pursue his objective, […]

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